We had some comments during the education phase that it’s hard to tell how many people actually want to exit in the short term. Some suggested holding a snapshot poll of NXM/wNXM holders. However, didn’t really see that providing any reliable information - no rational actor is going to signal that they want to sell their tokens.
As an alternative - wanted to provide some overview on the distribution of NXM and wNXM to help inform the discussion.
To be clear, based mainly on assigning categories depending on when NXM was acquired by the holding addresses, so not bulletproof, but hopefully better than nothing.
Will only discuss at high level, don’t want to doxx anyone, but DYOR etc.
| Category | (w)NXM Holding | Constituents |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term aligned | ~3.1m | Foundation, Treasury, Team, VCs |
| Likely short-term sellers | ~700k | Large holders that obtained their (typically w)NXM either around the time of the buyback in late 2021, or especially since tokenomics discussions August 2022 onwards |
| Other | ~3m | Exchanges (Uniswap excl. above, Binance), unknown whales, smaller holders |
Based on the above, would expect:
- ~10% of holders to want to exit in the “short term” with high probability,
- ~45% be long-term aligned, so will sell relatively little with high probability,
- with the rest unknown.